The bookies occasionally set the goalline at 3.0 as Fergie’s boys averaged three goals a game

One thing I’ve learned from betting on the Premiership’s opening weeks – now, more than ever before, it pays to wait for team line-ups. So many teams are playing with one up front that waiting for team news before placing your bets gives you an edge. Anyone who reckons that’s not the case is talking nonsense.

With managers changing their systems from week to week, it’s vital to see who’s playing if you want to make a properly-informed bet. For example, when Liverpool played Manchester United at Anfield in September, I nearly fell off my chair when I saw the team line-ups. Liverpool and United had Peter Crouch and Ruud van Nistelrooy up front on their own. I thought to myself, ‘Crouch used to play up front with another striker, Kevin Phillips, at Southampton last season. Where the hell are Liverpool going to get the goals from?’

Sitting pretty

I had a wager on under 2.5 goals and backed the 0-0 scoreline with interest. As it turned out, the game finished 0-0. My hunch was right – both teams sat back, there were very few chances, and it ended in a stalemate.

Now you’re not going to get it right all the time, but my betting clearly benefited from knowing the team selections. If Rafael Benitez had picked Djibril Cisse up front alongside Crouch it could have been a completely different game.

I’d rather wait until 20 minutes before kick-off for those vital extra pieces of info. That’s the way I gamble now. The days of sitting in the bookies, filling out coupons on a Saturday morning hours before kick-off, are gone. When betting, all you’re looking for is a slight advantage, and teams details give you that.

The under/over goals market is a fascinating one (more info about this in our Football Masterclasses – Ed). Sometimes it’s easier to predict how many goals there’ll be in the game than who’ll win. An under/over goals bet can also prolong your interest in a game if one team goes 2-0 up and the result appears a foregone conclusion.

In the Premiership, I can see plenty of teams who will be involved in few high-scoring high-scoring encounters this season. Liverpool, again, top the list. And you have to consider Man United as well. That’s remarkable – just two years ago I was always backing United to be over 2.5 goals. Well, I did if the market was available – at that time the bookies occasionally set the goalline at 3.0 because Fergie’s boys were averaging about three goals a game. That was still a value bet, so you’d often see United rack up three goals, which meant you at least got your stake returned, and then you’d sit back and see if another goal would fly in to net you a profit. Not any more – things are far less exciting at Old Trafford these days.

Charlton’s best foot forward

It’s a different story at The Valley, where Charlton Athletic came out of the blocks fast this season. Not for the first time, either – we’ve seen them make a flying start before but I believe their form will continue this time. Indeed, I think they’ve got a very good chance of finishing in the top six.

Why? Three reasons – firstly, Danny Murphy is certainly a lot fitter than when he first arrived from Liverpool. He has been asked to play in a slightly different role this season. He is having to get up and down the park and he’s thriving on the challenge. Unlikely as it sounds, he has turned into Charlton’s replacement for Scott Parker.

Secondly, Dennis Rommedahl has finally turned up. A lot of big clubs were after him when he signed for Charlton, and he was a major disappointment. Last season he could never get into good positions or put decent balls into the box. This season he’s causing defenders all sorts of problems. He’s like a new signing.

Thirdly, in Darren Bent they have a goalscorer who can get into double figures. The Addicks haven’t had a decent striker for ten to 15 years. The highest number of goals any Charlton player has managed in a single Premiership season is 11, scored by Jonatan Johansson (2000-01) and Jason Euell (2001-02). Last season’s top scorer was Shaun Bartlett, with six. Bent got five in his first four games! With him up front, Murphy behind and Rommedahl on the wing, they have a new-look side which I think will go the distance.

Addicks to jack it up a notch

It’s a weird one for punters, but I think now is the time to re-assess Charlton. We’re used to seeing them as a mid-table side. They usually put a lot of effort into getting to 40-45 points and then breathe a sigh of relief. But this year they’ll push on until the end for a place in Europe. It’s a shame the betting value has gone in the ‘Top Six Finish’ market. Before the season started you could get great prices on the Addicks – alas, not any more. But my advice is, be wary about backing against them. This is a side that could go the distance.