[ Inside Edge UK ]
   LOGIN | REGISTER  Unregistered
SEARCH Web Inside Poker  
   
 

Football: Masterclass

 

Scoring a winner

Anybody who reckons betting on correct scores in football matches is a mug's game is barking mad, says Clive Batty. There are profits to be made out there - just so long as you're backing the right teams.

In November's InsideEdge football betting expert Bernard Rossi explained how correct-score betting on Arsenal and Chelsea can pay dividends. Jose Mourinho's team, especially, have lived up to their billing with a string of 1-0 wins this season, but the Blues are far from being the only team to represent superb value for correct-score punters.

Indeed, my research into the English, Scottish and European leagues suggests around 15 to 20 clubs, for whatever reason, seem to have a particular score programmed into their DNA this season.

Even better, now is the best time to take maximum advantage of these anomalies. With over 40% of the season completed, trends are clear and it's apparent which teams have a strong tendency to draw 0-0 or 1-1 or win by a variety of scorelines.

If you're going to bet on correct scores involving a particular team it's smart to keep abreast of the transitory factors - suspensions, injuries and so on - which might have a significant bearing on their results once you've identified their likeliest scoreline.

Not that the odds will change greatly. Using Tottenham as an example, the odds on a Spurs game ending 0-0 (a distinct possibility during the brief era when Jacques Santini was manager) are still the same now (around 8/1) as they were earlier in the season, despite new coach Martin Jol's introduction of more attack-minded tactics.

Bookies' blunders
This is a prime example of the casual attitude bookies have to correct scores, the odds for which stem directly from how a team is priced to win, lose or draw a match, rather than whether a side is often involved in high-scoring or low-scoring matches.

Normally these odds are set at the beginning of the season and appear unaltered on the back of the coupon over the next nine months - a policy which saves time and cuts admin costs but opens up exciting opportunities for clued-up punters.

Most bookies have a different correct-score chart for matches in European leagues, but they're poorly calculated and fail to take into account the various quirks of the leagues. For instance, the average number of goals in a French league game last season was 2.33, compared to 3.00 in the German leagues - yet the bookies neglect to take such marked differences into account.

Ladbrokes is slightly sharper than its competitors in having a separate correct-score chart for Italy's Serie A (which traditionally features many low-scoring matches) - but this is the exception rather than the rule.

So much for the theory. Now for the juicy part - the list of teams who can be relied upon to land the same result time after time. Leading the way this season - at least in terms of straight 'hits' rather than percentage profitability - are Swansea City. In their first 21 league games, the Swans notched up an impressive eight 1-0 wins - a tally even Chelsea have failed to match. Generally available at 6/1 or better, the 'real' odds for Swansea to win 1-0 are currently around 13/8. Like the Londoners, the Welshmen have built their success this season on a strong defence but have struggled to score freely, only once netting three goals in a game. Apart from a rogue 4-2 defeat at Southend United, all Swansea's results fall into a low-scoring pattern - an encouraging sign that more 1-0 wins will be on the way for the remainder of the season.

Real good prospect
Matching the League Two side for consistency are Spain's Real Betis, masters of the 1-1 draw, with five such results in their first 15 games. They are this season's answer to Osasuna, who featured in an incredible 13 1-1 draws in La Liga last term. Again, the 11/2 odds that are available for Real Betis to figure in 1-1 draws are extremely attractive compared to the 'real' odds of 2/1.

In Italy, Inter's six 2-2 draws this season are evidence of the wisdom in putting your money on future matches involving the Italian giants to finish with the same score, especially as the ultra-generous 16/1 odds offered by Ladbrokes dwarf the 'real' odds of 6/4. Incidentally, it would be a false economy not to put an extra bet on the 3-3 draw as well (best odds 66/1 at Ladbrokes), as two Inter games already this season have seen them share six goals with their opponents.

Again, this highscoring run of games is no coincidence, but rather a clear result of new Inter boss Roberto Mancini's stated aim to produce an attacking, entertaining team. Being an Italian, he'll try to sort out his leaky defence in due course, but meanwhile Inter matches provide correct-score gamblers with superb money-making opportunities.

Half-time breather
Hindsight, of course, is a wonderful thing - we now know all about the trends because we've watched nearly half the season. Some would argue that correct scores are likely to change at any moment - in other words, just because a team has recorded a particular score regularly from August to January doesn't mean they'll keep doing so until May.

However, given the long odds available on correct scores - anywhere from 6/1 to 66/1, there's still enough value in the trends to back them until the end of the season. Results can come in infrequently and you'll still record a profit.

Avoid betting on cup games when managers may ring the changes; shop around for the best odds and, most importantly, take into account which team your correct-score fave is playing. Following the teams above - and others in our table overleaf - is more profitable than you might imagine.


THE VALUE PICKS
Click the How To button to view the three teams offering the most outstanding value on the correct-score betting markets in the UK and Europe. Don't just take my word for it - take a look at the tables for each team, showing just how much profit you would have made backing them from the start of this season. It's not too late to cash in either - long odds on correct scores means there's still some value in these trends.

Bookmark this post with:

 
  More FOOTBALL
 

Masterclass

 

Columnists

 

Features

 

Reviews

 
 
EMAIL TO A FRIEND   PRINT THIS
 
 
 
 
 

  FOOTBALL

[ RSS ]
There’s no such thing as infallible betting – unless you can read the minds of managers like Rafa Benitez

Tony Cascarino

Footballers may be hitting the headlines for all the wrong reasons, but they’re not the only ones who need to study the odds more

Columnists

Masterclass

Features

Reviews

Company Website | Media Information | Contact Us | Privacy Policy | Privacy Statement | Subs Info
Our Other Websites: Auto Express | Bizarre | Computer Buyer | Computer Shopper | Custom PC | Den of Geek | Den of Wii
Evo | Fortean Times | Inside Poker | IT Pro | Know Your Mobile | London is Free | MacUser | Men's Fitness | Micro Mart
Mobile Computer | Monkey | Octane | PC Pro | Poker Player | The First Post | Total Gambler | Viz | iGizmo | iMotor
Know your DSLR
© 2008 Dennis Publishing Limited. All rights reserved. Licensed by Felden