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Football spreads

What exactly are the golden rules to follow when spread betting on football? Spread betting guru Dan Townend explains

Don't believe the hype about any other sport in spread betting - football is the daddy. Whether you count the number of markets, the number of punters or the sums of money gambled year after year, football is by far the number-one sport for this exciting and volatile form of betting.

Times are changing, too - the growth of in-running betting (that is, betting during live events) during the last few years has granted footie punters more options, and the recent slashing of margins by two major firms has given punters outstanding value. Chuck in the arrival of an exchange firm and you can see why spread betting is such a fascinating sector for football fans these days.

If you're a complete beginner to spread betting on football, don't worry - novices and experts alike will find plenty of sound advice here. Read our golden rules and you'll come away with a better chance of making money on the football spread markets.

ALWAYS GET THE BEST PRICE

Sounds obvious but, as with every form of gambling, you must always grab the best value. Check all the big spread-betting firms whenever placing a bet to make sure the price you take is the best you can find. That means having accounts with all firms, but it will pay off - for a £10 bet, taking a price 3pts worse than the best price costs you £30, regardless of whether you win or lose in the end.

A little forward planning can help you secure the best price by knowing what your fellow punters are likely to do. Compared with fixed-odds prices, spread prices are much more reactive to the weight of money, which will push supremacy quotes significantly upwards, particularly near kick off, when lazy gamblers pile in expecting an easy victory for the likes of Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United. If you want to back a side or event that's likely to be popular, then do it as soon as the markets open.

BUY WITH CAUTION!

In the early days of spread betting, the adage used to be that if you sold every market, you would be guaranteed a profit. That's no longer true, as punters have become more sophisticated. However, it's worth bearing in mind that football punters love to buy in all markets because they love to see goals, action and so on. The firms are well aware of this trend and prices are skewed upwards to take it into account, but you still have a better chance of winning if you're a seller and a cautious buyer.

STAY COOL WHEN THE TEMPERATURE RISES

Spread bettors lose money because they overreact to events that unfold in front of their eyes. Psychologically speaking, people place more emphasis than they should on the most recent information available.

For example, when a tough midfielder is booked for lunging at an opposition forward, spread traders know the phones will ring off the hook as punters assume it will be a bad-tempered match. On the bookings market, the price should go up 10pts but will actually go up 12 or 13, as traders will take into account the fact that more people will buy.

Human nature makes us want big totals, and spread bettors overestimate the results of sporting events. If you can reverse this tendency by staying cool and assessing all the information available, you're on to a winner.

SPECIALISE

The spread bettors who make money on football are those who concentrate on specific markets - they may stick to goalscorer minutes or bookings, for example.

Research is a key factor: they analyse statistics in detail to get an edge. Making a profit is easier in the lower and foreign leagues. For the Premiership, the bookies have every statistic and detail at their fingertips, but this isn't the case in the lower leagues or abroad.

The less information that's readily available, the more chance the punter has of finding an edge. The man who watches League Two games may just be at an advantage over an office-bound spread maker.

KNOW WHEN TO GET OUT

One of the big selling points (is that a really bad pun? - Ed) of spread betting in-running is the ability to trade in and out of a game. Clearly it appeals to punters: more than 40% of football spread-betting action these days is in-running. Trading is tricky, though, and cutting losses is rarely the best course of action.

For example, if you sell bookings before kick-off and three players get yellow cards in the first ten minutes, the new price put up by the firms will take into account more than merely the events on the field. The traders, who read the game better than anyone, will also take into account the way people bet or are likely to bet for the remainder of the game, and you will find little value in opting out.

To get out of a bet, you have to do the opposite of what you did in the first place - for example, if you bought corners, you have to buy at the current price to close your bet. This gives you a double disadvantage, as you have to accept a loss every time you close out.

However, cutting your losses becomes an asset where events that can't be predicted significantly change the nature of the market - for example, a sending-off. In the bookings market, a sending-off makes a massive difference to the spread prices, so it may be justified to get out nursing a loss.

Finally, what about when you're winning? Simple: let your profits run.

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