THE SCENARIO
It’s four handed, blinds are 15,000/30,000 with a 3,000 ante and the starting pot is 57,000. Kido Pham has just lost most of his chips and is pretty desperate. In first position he moves all- in for 190,000. In second position, Ted Forrest, with 2,690,000 in chips, looks down at A♠-9♠ and quickly calls. Chris Bell, on the small blind and with 1,485,000 in chips, also calls. Gavin Smith, on the big blind, folds. There’s 603,000 in the pot and the flop is K♥-8♠-4♠. Chris Bell checks. Now it’s up to Ted.

THE PLAY
Many players would check here without thinking, but Ted is not so hasty. Ted isn’t here to move up the pay ladder into third place, which pays $289,693 compared to the first place prize of $1,153,278 – he wants to win. He throws out a bet of just under half the pot, and Chris Bell folds. Internet forum posters, ever ignorant and quick to criticise, ripped into Forrest for making what was actually a world-class play.

Ted knows that Kido Pham’s range of hands is extremely wide, and includes many holdings that he is a big favourite against – like worse Aces and small suited connectors. He would be unlucky to run into a hand that has him in big trouble, and probably expects to be at worst a coin-flip. Chris Bell’s hand is somewhat more of a mystery – not strong enough to re-raise and isolate on Kido, but good enough to call.

ANALYSIS
By betting, Ted achieves several things at once: 1. He protects his hand in case Chris has called with a hand like Q♥-J♥, which would fold to a bet, but which has a chance to outdraw him. 2.He can isolate on Kido Pham, whom he is probably a significant favourite against. If Kido has a smaller Ace, Ted is a huge favourite. If Kido has a pair smaller than 9s (which hasn’t flopped a set), Ted is a still a favourite with Aces, 9s and spades to hit on the turn or river. 3. He creates dead money. If Chris folds, Ted has increased his equity in the pot significantly because Chris has contributed to the pot but cannot possibly win it. Ted may even eliminate some hands that are stronger than his own. 4. In the unlikely event that Chris has a genuine hand, Ted may still win a giant pot and eliminate Chris Bell if he hits his flush on the turn or river, because it’s very unlikely for Chris to put him on a drawing hand.

The only downside to betting is that the chances of Kido Pham being eliminated on this hand are slightly decreased, because there are some variations where Kido makes a hand that’s better than Ted’s, but would have lost to Chris’ had he remained in the hand.

THE RESULT
In the actual hand, Chris Bell folded pocket 9s and the turn came with the case 9, giving Ted a pair that was enough to beat Kido Pham’s A♣-5♦. Ted went on to finish second in the event after taking a couple of nasty beats, with Gavin Smith the eventual winner.