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Horse Racing: Masterclass

 

Horse Racing Betting
Part 5: Two-Year-Olds

What are the signs to look for when betting on the two-year-old races that fill the calendar this autumn?

A quick flick through the various flat races which take place up and down the UK in the second half of the turf season reveals that this is the period when the racing calendar becomes jam-packed with contests for two-year-old horses.

Although horses will continue to develop and mature even past their fourth birthdays, two years-old is the youngest age a horse can actually race in the UK. In many ways, two-year-old (or juvenile) races can be both intriguing and frustrating in equal measure for punters.

Intriguing, because horses which are successful in the most prestigious races for two-year-olds often find themselves catapulted to the head of the betting market for the important Classic races run the following season.

Frustrating, from a punting perspective at least, because it can appear to be particularly difficult to weigh up the form of a horse which is just starting out on its racing career and is either unraced or has competed in just a handful of contests.

On the face of it, then, you could argue that betting on two-year-old races has about as much appeal as being abandoned at sea in a liferaft with only the cast of Big Brother for company.

Normal use of the formbook needs to be suspended when it comes to weighing up two-year-old contests. But, thankfully, there are other pointers at hand to give punters a successful edge when it comes to uncovering juvenile flat race winners.

On the level

One of the most obvious pointers for level weights and nursery races is one that should appeal to those punters who like to get stuck into betting on the market leaders.

When you take all types of horse racing into account, the statistics show that favourites tend to win about a third of all horse races. However, when you concentrate on particular types of two-year-old race, this proportion actually increases quite dramatically.

One of the most common types of two-year-old race is the one where each runner is asked to carry the same racing weight (in a maiden race, for example, where none of the runners has won a race previously). When you wade through the results of all these types of level-weight juvenile races run in recent seasons, you actually discover that a whopping 44% were landed by the jolly.

As we have discovered in previous IE masterclasses, handicap races are the opposite of level weights races in that horses are asked to carry a certain racing weight in relation to their ability. The more weight, the better their supposed ability. From mid-summer onwards, two year-olds are allowed to run in handicap contests of their own known as nursery races.

Unlike handicap races for older horses where the horse carrying the most weight rarely comes out on top, the old adage of 'backing the top weight in a nursery' is actually one of the better horse racing systems available to punters. It is surprising how often number one on the racecard prevails in nurseries.

Sires on fire

There are other ways to get an edge when having a bet in two-year-old races too. One way to do this is to follow sires who have a good track record of producing precocious, talented two year-olds. A look at your racecard will tell you which horse sired which juvenile. Our 'Ones two watch' box shows the leading sires in recent seasons based on the amount of prize money their various offspring won as juveniles - a good indication that their runners are capable of making the frame in the top-quality races for youngsters.

Another good tactic is to follow trainers with a good track record of producing a high percentage of juvenile winners. The same box, for example, provides a list of trainers who have all recorded an impressive strike rate when it comes to sending out juvenile winners in recent seasons.

In order to qualify for a position in our list, trainers had to have sent out a minimum of 20 runners over the last three seasons. The especially interesting pointer to take from this table is that while the list contains some well-known handlers such as Sir Michael Stoute and Godolphin's Saeed bin Suroor, it also contains some less obvious names.

The starting prices for horses from less famous yards will often be more generous than if they were to come from higher profile stables. So track the two-year-old runners of Henry Candy, Peter Cundell and Peter Makin with special scrutiny this autumn because their record suggests they're at the top of their tree in being able to prepare horses to land juvenile contests.

If you are simply more interested in siding with stables with the most juvenile firepower, look no further than the combined strings of Richard Hannon, Mick Channon and Mark Johnston. In the last three seasons this awesome threesome has accounted for around 20% of all two-year-old winners across the entire UK training community!

Birthday greetings

Just as kids in the same class at school can vary in terms of age and ability by as much as 11 months, so can the runners in a juvenile race. Before placing a bet in any 2yo race, have a close look at the different dates on which each runner was born. These can be found in the racecard or the in-depth form section of the Racing Post. This information can have a major bearing on the outcome of a race. The reason for this is down to how the breeding system operates here in the UK - it means that thoroughbred racehorses can be foaled at any time between January and June of a respective breeding year.

Juvenile races run this autumn will effectively be competed for by those horses which were born between January and June 2003. When you think about it, a horse foaled early in the cycle (say, in January 2003) must, in maturity terms at least, have a significant advantage over any comparatively late-foaled runner (say, one born in June 2003). What's more, research has confirmed that this is indeed the case. In fact, horses foaled in January are likely to win twice as many races as those born in June.

Bear all this in mind when betting on two-year-olds and you should find the value this autumn.

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At-a-glance rules
Our pointers for consideration when backing two-year-olds

More favourites win juvenile level weights races compared with the wider universe of all flat-racing results

Don't be put off backing top weights in nursery handicaps

Early-foaled juveniles have a significant maturity advantage over later-foaled rivals

 
Ones to watch

Look out for these sires of two-year-olds - their offspring racked up top prize money in the last three seasons:

- Royal Applause
- Pivotal
- Sadlers Wells
- Danehill
- Night Shift
- Grand Lodge
- Green Desert
- Danehill Dancer
- Fasliyev
- Polar Falcon

Top trainers, by strike rate, with two-year-olds in Britain from 2002-2004 were:

1. H Candy 29%
2. S bin Suroor 28%
3. J Noseda 24%
4. R Charlton 21%
5 P Cundell 21%
6. J Gosden 21%
7. D Loder 21%
8. Sir M Stoute 21%
9. P Makin 21%
10. M Jarvis 19%
11. M Johnston 19%
12. Sir M Prescott 19%

 
 
 

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