There’s nothing more satisfying than sparring with a bookmaker and triumphing

Like playing chess with the black pieces (ie going second) and winning a game against a strong opponent, there’s nothing more satisfying than sparring with a bookmaker and triumphing. Indeed, betting is a game of chess – a bookie bets to a considerable theoretical margin in his favour, which is like always starting with the white pieces; his first move is his opening prices, yours is your bet; he takes bets and adjusts prices accordingly and at the end of the game he usually wins the tournament like a grandmaster playing simultaneous chess. But will you win your board? Well, a professional will certainly win more than he loses.

In any game the winning strategy is usually to do what your opponent doesn’t want you to do. It’s not always possible to work out what this is, but bookmakers give away clues, especially when it comes to horse racing:

• Each-way bets that are refused with ‘Win only’ or ‘Half stakes on the place’ offers. Put the telephone down quickly and plunder all the each way you can get (up to your required stake) on the internet. You are certainly betting in a market where the place terms make the place book well under 100% and therefore in your favour. Most likely a book with a long odds-on favourite, clear second favourite at 5/1 to 8/1, and big prices the rest with three places available each way. Just back the second favourite each way.

• Stable money not Pricewise or other tipsters’ horses. Watch out for price cuts that occur in the early-price market with two or three bookmakers only and aren’t obvious bets from the horses’ previous form. Tipster horses will light up www.oddschecker.com with a sea of blue. Back the former and avoid the latter.

By far the best race meeting of the year is the Cheltenham Festival. The enthusiasm and love of the sport shown by festival racegoers and pilgrims from the Emerald Isle put Royal Ascot’s posers to shame. This is real racing. I’ve won money at 17 of the last 20 Festivals, and this year there could be value to be found in the following areas:

1. The number of Irish winners. This has been a good source of profit. Last year I had a substantial four-figure bet with Cashmans on six-or-more winners at 6/4. Had they bothered to check they would have found that at the same time Ladbrokes were 8/11 on six-or-more and evens on five-or-less. Ladbrokes subsequently shortened six-or-more to 1/2.
   
   
2. The Cheltenham Foxhunters Chase. Devotees of McKenzie, Selby & Harris’ Hunter Chasers & Point-to-Pointers annual will already be hooked on betting on hunter chases. Traditionally, bookies find it much more difficult to price up these races without collateral form to rely on and with Irish raiders to assess. Using a ratings service and adjusting for the going and the Cheltenham fences pays rich dividends.
   
   
3. Change of going. This is what you’re looking for with day-of-the-race betting, as opposed to ante-post. Remember, nearly every race will have been traded ante-post and the bookies will be lured into a false sense of security as to the accuracy of their prices, having offered them for such a length of time. This will alter with a going change from good to soft or from good to firm to good to soft. If this happens I’ll be up all night re-working my prices and seeing which horses have significantly improved or decreased chances. I’ll immediately hit internet prices where available and phone accounts and shops as soon as they open.
   
   
4. Handicaps. For once, every horse is trying (unless Aintree is the plot and a bad run here in a less suitable race will guarantee a big price there!). To get a horse well handicapped, its prep races may have been run over unsuitable distances on less-than-ideal going or when the horse was at less-than-peak fitness. Early market moves in the day-of-therace markets on big-priced horses (20/1 or more) are therefore particularly significant here and if the horse suits this profile you should follow the money immediately, seeking to match the best price taken each way.